The Manhattan Project developed the first nukes (three bombs; two different varieties) from scratch in less than four years. Less than six years, even if you start counting from the first proof of concept controlled nuclear fission.
The Soviets (once they got their hands on tech data) got their first nuke four years after that.
Israel built its first nuclear weapon in 1966.
Pakistan, for cryin’ out loud, is thought to have built its own first nuke in the mid-’80s; thirty years ago. Iran, though…
Their nuclear power program began in the ’50s. They started development of a weapon after the 1979 ouster of the Shah.
The most pessimistic estimate for Iran getting a nuclear is three years after they finally get enough centrifuges built and manage to get them to run reliably. Apparently no one really thinks they’ve accomplished that part yet. I don’t.
Iran has a technical problem. It’s run by a bunch of medievally-minded fundamentalist religious fanatics who despise knowledge and progress (you see the same thing with nutcases in Egypt trashing archaeological sites, Taliban in Afghanistan destroying statues of Buddha, and ISIS idiots smashing museums and bulldozing entire sites).
With a pre-existing nuclear knowledge base, Iran has taken more than ten times as long as America did it from scratch — 70 years ago — to still not build a bomb. Frankly, I’m not real worried, even if Dubya’s administration did claim that they were a mere six months from a bomb… a decade ago.
But let’s say they manage it. Or more likely, they find someone to sell them one. They could mount it on one of those ‘shopped missiles and let JarJar press the button.
If Iran came up with enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb, the first we’d know of it would likely be when some illiterate janitor, none too sure of anything invented during the almost 1400 years since Mo kicked the bucket, tidies things up by stacking it all neatly in a broom closet.
Problem solved. If Iran got their paws on a nuke, they’d be more of danger to themselves than anyone else. Pardon my lack of concern.