- NZ Confiscation: 19,837, 9/13/2019
- New Zealand “Buyback” Report: Preliminary August Numbers, 8/30/2019; “about 15,000”
- New Zealand Confiscation Update, 8/12/2019; 10,242
- Guess the number of NZ guns affected by the confiscation law, 7/27/2019; 3,275
As of September 25, 2019:
- 24,073 firearms
- NZ$45.8 million paid out; averaging NZ$2,053 per firearm
- 3,126 E-Cat MSSAs turned in
Not so fast. 24,073 is the total turned in. 1,763 of those aren’t even prohibited, and they may not have been paid for. The number of banned firearms is 22,310.
Now that I’m getting more specific data, I can do better compliance estimates. The most recent government estimate of the number of affected firearms is 240,000.
That means that with less than three months to go, they have an overall 9.3% compliance rate.
The E-Cat number is particularly interesting to me: 3,126 out of @14,000 turned in. That’s a 22.36% compliance rate… for registered firearms possessed by registered owners. That’s still nearly 4 out 5 blowing them off. Or worse, since I still don’t have hard numbers on total E-Cat firearms; estimates I’ve found range from “around 14,000” to 14,500. NZ police don’t seem to make that data available on their web site.
At any rate, if they continue to collect at the current rate, they may achieve 18.3% compliance; probably not.
Financially, this is costing them around NZ$2,053 per firearm. If they were to actually get 100% compliance, the program will cost them over NZ$490 million. That’s a bit more than they appear to have budgeted, and NZ$190 million more than even the revised gov WAG of NZ$300 million.
Have fun, Kiwis.
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