NZ Buyback: Preliminary October Report

Previous reports


‘Twould appear wise Kiwis are still thumbing their noses at the government’s firearms ban.

As of October 6, 2019, via Stuff.NZ:

More illegal firearms surrendered at second New Plymouth amnesty and buy-back
As at the end of September, the total compensation paid to firearms owners following amnesty and buy-back events across the country was $49.6 million, with 16,723 people handing in 26,338 banned firearms and 96,279 parts.

I’ll run those numbers in a moment. But first…

Provisional information provided by police on Sunday said 92 people attended the three-day event and 143 prohibited firearms and 370 parts were handed in.
[…]
During the first buy-back in New Plymouth in August, 209 gun owners handed over 343 firearms and 1160 accessories and parts including magazines but Ryan said it wasn’t as busy this time.

Their second “buyback” had 44% of the attendance of the first. Those few turned in 41.7% of the prohibited firearms as the first wave. Once again, we are seeing dropping rates of compliance per event as the deadline approaches.

Back to the running totals. As of September 25, the NZ Police were reporting 22,310 prohibited firearms surrendered. This news report now says 26,338.

The most recent government estimate of the total number of firearms affected is 240,000.

10.97%. Call it 11% compliance.

Program cost is averaging NZ$1883.21 per firearm. That puts the estimated total cost at NZ$451,970,400.

This is not the official count from NZP, which usually comes out in the later part of each month. I’ve noticed that individual media account usually inflate the number of surrendered firearms compared to later official numbers, which I attribute to non-prohibited firearms getting lumped in with prohibited weapons to make the turn-ins appear more successful. Official reports drop the count.

Projection: They are averaging 2.44% compliance per month, for 4.5 months.

By the deadline, that current average (and it’s likely high compared to later official reports), I now estimate they’ll get 14.67% compliance by the deadline.

That’s less than Australia managed.

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