This why the IHME COVID-19 model is fraudulent

I mostly avoid the crappy IHME model now, but I happened to see a reference to it today. A quick comparison to reality made it very clear what they are doing.

This is IHME for Georgia, deaths per day; solid red is allegedly the real numbers, and the rest is projected. Note that their total deaths projection is actually fairly close to reality. But also note their curve.

IHME claims Georgia peaked at 100 deaths per day, and continues to have high spikes.

Now this is the actual deaths per day reported by Georgia. Deaths per day gradually increased, accelerated, peaked, and has been declining since mid-April. It peaked at 48.

Why are the numbers so different? Georgia’s graph shows daily deaths. IHME doesn’t; they save up days’ worth of reporting, then graph those days’ worth as occurring on one day. Thus, the total comes close to Georgia’s reality, but they get to generate continuing spikes that, when curve-fitted and projected, give a much higher and extended curve than reality. They “projected” 45 deaths for 4/29 and 4/30, based on that curve. Reality was 7 and 3, respectively.

Falsifying dates of death to generate continuing peaks is fraud. They’ve had plenty of time to look at the real data reported through multiple sources. If it was merely an error, they had plenty of time to correct it. They did not. They continue to use false data. They have no excuse for not noticing that they’re claiming a peak over twice as high as Georgia’s actual peak; 100 vs. 48.

Since they also know governments were using their model to make plans to deal with the outbreak, and knowingly provided — are still providing — a falsified model, I think a criminal investigation is warranted.

Added:For the slow, here’s a simplified example of how counting incidents on the wrong day skews the model. The vertical axis is Cases. The horizontal axis is Days.


In this example, we had ten total cases, with 1 case occurring per day. That is graphed in black. The curve is flat.

But using IHME’s methodology…

Day 1: They report 1 case.
Day 2: skipped
Day 3: They added days 2 and 3, and reported both on day 3.
Day 4: skipped
Day 5: skipped
Day 6: Added days 4, 5 and 6 together, and reported all on day 6.
Day 7: skipped
Day 8: skipped
Day 9: skipped
Day 10: Added days 7, 8, 9, and 10 together, and reported all on day 10.

A much different curve, showing cases increasing now. But the total number of cases is the same.


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2 thoughts on “This why the IHME COVID-19 model is fraudulent

  1. The Freeholder May 3, 2020 / 5:39 pm

    The question in my mind is why does IHME use this “methodology”? Laziness or something worse?


    • Bear May 4, 2020 / 9:51 am

      Not laziness. They had to work to input this fake data. They had to work to change their model to do this.

      Fraud. Motive is tougher to determine. Sensationalist claims get more publicity, and that leads to more grants.

      It could also be political, since it was used to promote a massive governmental push for tossing the Constitution and putting the nation under house arrest.


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