ChinCOmmon Cold

No shit. I was trying to point this out more than two months ago.

CDC Antibody Studies Confirm Huge Gap Between COVID-19 Infections and Known Cases
These results confirm something we already knew: The COVID-19 infection fatality rate—deaths as a share of all infections—is much lower than the crude case fatality rate—deaths as a share of known cases. That is bound to be true when testing is limited and a virus typically produces mild or no symptoms. At the same time, the CDC’s antibody studies imply that efforts to control the epidemic through testing, isolation, quarantine, and contact tracing will not be very effective, since they reach only a small percentage of virus carriers.

 

Pay attention. Antibody testing is showing that ChinCOVID cases actually exceeded known cases by 12:1…

two to three months ago. And if you looked at the datapoint updates on my prediction post, you’ll realize that estimate may be far too low. One study suggests it’s as much as 80:1.

We freaking well know that SARS-CoV-2 infections are everywhere, and have been since at least December last year. Yes, kiddies; before the CCP even announced the “new” betacoronavirus strain. By early January it had already spread to Ohio.

This post-lockdown “surge” we’re allegedly seeing? If you started testing for any other coronavirus, rhinovirus, or influenza virus, you’d “suddenly” see a “surge” in those, too. It’s not a surge in “new cases.” It’s a surge in testing. They’re finally seeing what was already there.

In Georgia, by the time of the April peak in known-positive cases, they were testing 2,000-2,500 people per day. In the past four days alone, Georgia has done 78,839 tests. That’s an average 19,710 tests per day; almost 8 times as many as during the April peak. 8.3% of all tests come back positive. Of course we’re seeing more.

Georgia’s population is 10,617,423, and ChinCOVID has been loose in every county for months. I think every county went positive before the lockdown. This suggests that, rather than the 77,210 reported cases, we’ve had 881,246. In Georgia, which actually has fewer per capita cases than many states (ranked 16th), there’s better than a 1 in 12 chance you already have or had ChinCOVID. And probably never noticed.

As mentioned above, one batch of researchers looking at antibody tests, think it may be 80 times the reported number of 2,637,439 nationwide.

That’s 210,995,120 cases. 64.3% of the entire population. If they are correct, there’s only a 1 in 3 chance that you don’t already have (or had) it.

If they are correct, then instead of a 11% mortality rate, it’s really just 0.06%. If the lower –and more pessimistic — estimate of 12 times the known cases is correct, then the ChinCOVID mortality rate is 0.91%.

The mortality rate for seasonal flu is 0.06 to 0.11%.

We let our glorious leaders destroy the economy and human rights for the fucking common cold.

If you think everyone abso-goddam-lutely needs to wear a mask, why in hell weren’t you wearing one year-round before this?

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More on the ChinCOVID Spread

Datapoint, 6/25/202: Worldometer reports 2,487,638 total US cases, but…

US health officials believe 20 million Americans have had the coronavirus
U.S. officials believe as many as 20 million Americans have contracted the coronavirus, suggesting millions had the virus and never knew it.
[…]
Twenty million infections would mean about 6% of the nation’s 331 million people have been infected, leaving a majority of the population still susceptible to the virus.

I think that estimate is way too low. In April, New York state antibody testing showed 13.9% positive; a rate more than twice as high as what the feds are claiming now, which would have extrapolated to 2,703,550 cases in that state alone, two months ago. About the same time a small Massachusetts study found 30%. Currently, Georgia — with a much lower known infection rate than those states — is running a mere 5.9%.

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Georgia ChinCOVID Deaths

As of this writing, Georgia reports 2,642 ChinCOVID deaths. 1,182 of those were in long-term care facilities.

44.7%

I think we’ve identified the primary morbidity indicator. Jeez; Georgia wasn’t even one of the states that made the homicidal call to require nursing homes take in ChinCOVID patients. Having spoken to Georgia nurses who’ve worked in nursing homes over the years, I’m willing to place the blame on the administrators.

Amusingly, the Journal constipation, like other muddia outlets, is spinning the “surge” in “new” cases.

Georgia just reported 1,800 new COVID-19 cases on Saturday, the highest number the state has reported in a single day since the pandemic started.

 

The Georgia Department of Public Health on Saturday reported 1,800 new cases of COVID-19, bringing the statewide total to 63,809.

Not quite. GA DPH actually reported 89 new cases on Saturday (preliminary). The other 1,711 were old cases just now being reported. Judging by the changing graph, some of those cases may go back to as early as May 11. Not all the labs use electronic reporting, so there can be rather long lag times before DPH hears about cases; that’s why DPH calls the recent numbers “preliminary.” But implying that there were 1,800 new cases in a single day is much scarier.

If some of those “new” cases are as old as they appear, the folks could have recovered by the time they were reported. If you’ll look at DPH’s “Cumulative Cases” graph, you should note there is no huge surge; the cases were spread over so many days that the curve remains linear until it begins flattening out on June 18.

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Early ChinCOVID

I’ve thought for months that SARS-CoV-2 was already widespread long before the lockdowns began, making them destructively pointless. And I’ve collected a fair bit of data to support that, including a case in Washington in December. Well, here’s another data point.

Coronavirus was in northern Italy in December, officials reveal after studying wastewater
SARS-Cov-2 RNA (ribonucleic acid) was found in samples collected in Milan and Turin on Dec. 18, 2019, and in Bologna on Jan. 29, 2020.

Detectable levels of RNA in wastewater indicate a lot of infected people, not just one or two. Community transmission was in full swing in Milan by 12/18/2019.

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NBC and NYT still trying for ChinCOVID panic

Ah, NBC; that non-biased COVID-19 fact-checking Trump on COVID-19.

COVID-19 cases are on the rise in 21 states, according to data compiled by The New York Times. There is some indication that expanded testing is catching more cases, but public health experts say that in reality, the surges are due to states’ reopening and people’s relaxing their social distancing protocols.

And Ms. Timm’s source for that, the NYT, is still full of bovine excrement.

Despite even their graph showing a clear decline in Georgia’s new daily cases, they claim we’re still “mostly the same.” BS.

Georgia’s new cases have definitely declined. What the NYT isn’t telling readers is that 6,207 of Georgia’s 53,249 cases — 11.7% — are antibody-positives. By definition, even though they are reported as post-lockdown, they are old cases. Antibody testing largely started just after the lockdown lifted. All of those represent old cases that should be reported as “new” on past dates. Instead, the state is graphing viral and antibody testing together, reporting antibody as new, and creating an imaginary post-lockdown surge.

A proper viral-positive curve would show an even higher peak, and a rapid decline. Not a double peak.

And if Timm at NBC, and the NYT, were interested in truth and facts, they could have noted that antibody testing suggests that 5.9% of Georgia’s population — 626,428 — had ChinCOVID, never knew it, got over it, and developed immunity. Add that to the known 47,974 cases, and that brings Georgia’s COVID-19 mortality rate down to 0.34%.

Oh, well. I probably can’t expect unbiased accuracy from Timm.

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Yet Another Early-COVID Datapoint

I’ve thought that SARS-CoV-2 was circulating widely long before people realized it; among other things, thing making the lockdowns pointless. Barn doors, horses; you know the drill. I collected quite a few bits of data to support that hypothesis, including confirmed community spread in Washington state back in December 2019 (before China even announced it).

Now we have this Harvard study suggesting it was becoming widespread in China last summer.

The global COVID-19 pandemic was originally linked to a zoonotic spillover event in Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Market in November or December of 2019. However, recent evidence suggests that the virus may have already been circulating at the time of the outbreak. Here we use previously validated data streams – satellite imagery of hospital parking lots and Baidu search queries of disease related terms – to investigate this possibility. We observe an upward trend in hospital traffic and search volume beginning in late Summer and early Fall 2019. While queries of the respiratory symptom “cough” show seasonal fluctuations coinciding with yearly influenza seasons, “diarrhea” is a more COVID-19 specific symptom and only shows an association with the current epidemic. The increase of both signals precede the documented start of the COVID-19 pandemic in December, highlighting the value of novel digital sources for surveillance of emerging pathogens.

It’s purely statistical, and doesn’t prove anything, and China denies it. Call it confirmation bias, but it is consistent with all the other things I found.

It would certainly explain why 5.9% of the tested population in Georgia is already positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.

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