Georgia ChinCOVID Deaths

As of this writing, Georgia reports 2,642 ChinCOVID deaths. 1,182 of those were in long-term care facilities.

44.7%

I think we’ve identified the primary morbidity indicator. Jeez; Georgia wasn’t even one of the states that made the homicidal call to require nursing homes take in ChinCOVID patients. Having spoken to Georgia nurses who’ve worked in nursing homes over the years, I’m willing to place the blame on the administrators.

Amusingly, the Journal constipation, like other muddia outlets, is spinning the “surge” in “new” cases.

Georgia just reported 1,800 new COVID-19 cases on Saturday, the highest number the state has reported in a single day since the pandemic started.

 

The Georgia Department of Public Health on Saturday reported 1,800 new cases of COVID-19, bringing the statewide total to 63,809.

Not quite. GA DPH actually reported 89 new cases on Saturday (preliminary). The other 1,711 were old cases just now being reported. Judging by the changing graph, some of those cases may go back to as early as May 11. Not all the labs use electronic reporting, so there can be rather long lag times before DPH hears about cases; that’s why DPH calls the recent numbers “preliminary.” But implying that there were 1,800 new cases in a single day is much scarier.

If some of those “new” cases are as old as they appear, the folks could have recovered by the time they were reported. If you’ll look at DPH’s “Cumulative Cases” graph, you should note there is no huge surge; the cases were spread over so many days that the curve remains linear until it begins flattening out on June 18.

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Early ChinCOVID

I’ve thought for months that SARS-CoV-2 was already widespread long before the lockdowns began, making them destructively pointless. And I’ve collected a fair bit of data to support that, including a case in Washington in December. Well, here’s another data point.

Coronavirus was in northern Italy in December, officials reveal after studying wastewater
SARS-Cov-2 RNA (ribonucleic acid) was found in samples collected in Milan and Turin on Dec. 18, 2019, and in Bologna on Jan. 29, 2020.

Detectable levels of RNA in wastewater indicate a lot of infected people, not just one or two. Community transmission was in full swing in Milan by 12/18/2019.

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NBC and NYT still trying for ChinCOVID panic

Ah, NBC; that non-biased COVID-19 fact-checking Trump on COVID-19.

COVID-19 cases are on the rise in 21 states, according to data compiled by The New York Times. There is some indication that expanded testing is catching more cases, but public health experts say that in reality, the surges are due to states’ reopening and people’s relaxing their social distancing protocols.

And Ms. Timm’s source for that, the NYT, is still full of bovine excrement.

Despite even their graph showing a clear decline in Georgia’s new daily cases, they claim we’re still “mostly the same.” BS.

Georgia’s new cases have definitely declined. What the NYT isn’t telling readers is that 6,207 of Georgia’s 53,249 cases — 11.7% — are antibody-positives. By definition, even though they are reported as post-lockdown, they are old cases. Antibody testing largely started just after the lockdown lifted. All of those represent old cases that should be reported as “new” on past dates. Instead, the state is graphing viral and antibody testing together, reporting antibody as new, and creating an imaginary post-lockdown surge.

A proper viral-positive curve would show an even higher peak, and a rapid decline. Not a double peak.

And if Timm at NBC, and the NYT, were interested in truth and facts, they could have noted that antibody testing suggests that 5.9% of Georgia’s population — 626,428 — had ChinCOVID, never knew it, got over it, and developed immunity. Add that to the known 47,974 cases, and that brings Georgia’s COVID-19 mortality rate down to 0.34%.

Oh, well. I probably can’t expect unbiased accuracy from Timm.

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Yet Another Early-COVID Datapoint

I’ve thought that SARS-CoV-2 was circulating widely long before people realized it; among other things, thing making the lockdowns pointless. Barn doors, horses; you know the drill. I collected quite a few bits of data to support that hypothesis, including confirmed community spread in Washington state back in December 2019 (before China even announced it).

Now we have this Harvard study suggesting it was becoming widespread in China last summer.

The global COVID-19 pandemic was originally linked to a zoonotic spillover event in Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Market in November or December of 2019. However, recent evidence suggests that the virus may have already been circulating at the time of the outbreak. Here we use previously validated data streams – satellite imagery of hospital parking lots and Baidu search queries of disease related terms – to investigate this possibility. We observe an upward trend in hospital traffic and search volume beginning in late Summer and early Fall 2019. While queries of the respiratory symptom “cough” show seasonal fluctuations coinciding with yearly influenza seasons, “diarrhea” is a more COVID-19 specific symptom and only shows an association with the current epidemic. The increase of both signals precede the documented start of the COVID-19 pandemic in December, highlighting the value of novel digital sources for surveillance of emerging pathogens.

It’s purely statistical, and doesn’t prove anything, and China denies it. Call it confirmation bias, but it is consistent with all the other things I found.

It would certainly explain why 5.9% of the tested population in Georgia is already positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.

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