NZ “Buyback” Report: 22,310

Previous reports

As of September 25, 2019:

Not so fast. 24,073 is the total turned in. 1,763 of those aren’t even prohibited, and they may not have been paid for. The number of banned firearms is 22,310.

Now that I’m getting more specific data, I can do better compliance estimates. The most recent government estimate of the number of affected firearms is 240,000.

That means that with less than three months to go, they have an overall 9.3% compliance rate. Continue reading

A new column over at The Zelman Partisans

Malicious Compliance Revisited
With registration schemes in the works, let’s imagine a humorous, purely hypothetical scenario.

Police State A passes a registration law.


Particularly ambitious Simon Jesters could probably think of ways to start now.

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New Zealand Confiscation Update

The first month of the NZ MSSA Amnesty is past, and the results are in.

“Buyback” Events: 90
Firearms turned in: 10,242
Average firearms/event: 113

This isn’t looking good for the government. As previously noted, there are a rough-guesstimated 158,730 affected guns.

Overall running compliance rate: 6.45%

Continue reading

Guess the number of NZ guns affected by the confiscation law

Some folks don’t like that I’ve been basing my New Zealand confiscation compliance estimates on NZ media reports.

Granted, “my” (not really mine, but as I said from NZ reports; have to go by something) estimates are kind of laughable, since no one knows how many newly banned guns are in the wild down there. But why are those guesstimates any less valid than my critics’ wild ass guesses?

Continue reading