ChinCOmmon Cold

No shit. I was trying to point this out more than two months ago.

CDC Antibody Studies Confirm Huge Gap Between COVID-19 Infections and Known Cases
These results confirm something we already knew: The COVID-19 infection fatality rate—deaths as a share of all infections—is much lower than the crude case fatality rate—deaths as a share of known cases. That is bound to be true when testing is limited and a virus typically produces mild or no symptoms. At the same time, the CDC’s antibody studies imply that efforts to control the epidemic through testing, isolation, quarantine, and contact tracing will not be very effective, since they reach only a small percentage of virus carriers.

 

Pay attention. Antibody testing is showing that ChinCOVID cases actually exceeded known cases by 12:1…

two to three months ago. And if you looked at the datapoint updates on my prediction post, you’ll realize that estimate may be far too low. One study suggests it’s as much as 80:1.

We freaking well know that SARS-CoV-2 infections are everywhere, and have been since at least December last year. Yes, kiddies; before the CCP even announced the “new” betacoronavirus strain. By early January it had already spread to Ohio.

This post-lockdown “surge” we’re allegedly seeing? If you started testing for any other coronavirus, rhinovirus, or influenza virus, you’d “suddenly” see a “surge” in those, too. It’s not a surge in “new cases.” It’s a surge in testing. They’re finally seeing what was already there.

In Georgia, by the time of the April peak in known-positive cases, they were testing 2,000-2,500 people per day. In the past four days alone, Georgia has done 78,839 tests. That’s an average 19,710 tests per day; almost 8 times as many as during the April peak. 8.3% of all tests come back positive. Of course we’re seeing more.

Georgia’s population is 10,617,423, and ChinCOVID has been loose in every county for months. I think every county went positive before the lockdown. This suggests that, rather than the 77,210 reported cases, we’ve had 881,246. In Georgia, which actually has fewer per capita cases than many states (ranked 16th), there’s better than a 1 in 12 chance you already have or had ChinCOVID. And probably never noticed.

As mentioned above, one batch of researchers looking at antibody tests, think it may be 80 times the reported number of 2,637,439 nationwide.

That’s 210,995,120 cases. 64.3% of the entire population. If they are correct, there’s only a 1 in 3 chance that you don’t already have (or had) it.

If they are correct, then instead of a 11% mortality rate, it’s really just 0.06%. If the lower –and more pessimistic — estimate of 12 times the known cases is correct, then the ChinCOVID mortality rate is 0.91%.

The mortality rate for seasonal flu is 0.06 to 0.11%.

We let our glorious leaders destroy the economy and human rights for the fucking common cold.

If you think everyone abso-goddam-lutely needs to wear a mask, why in hell weren’t you wearing one year-round before this?

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More on the ChinCOVID Spread

Datapoint, 6/25/202: Worldometer reports 2,487,638 total US cases, but…

US health officials believe 20 million Americans have had the coronavirus
U.S. officials believe as many as 20 million Americans have contracted the coronavirus, suggesting millions had the virus and never knew it.
[…]
Twenty million infections would mean about 6% of the nation’s 331 million people have been infected, leaving a majority of the population still susceptible to the virus.

I think that estimate is way too low. In April, New York state antibody testing showed 13.9% positive; a rate more than twice as high as what the feds are claiming now, which would have extrapolated to 2,703,550 cases in that state alone, two months ago. About the same time a small Massachusetts study found 30%. Currently, Georgia — with a much lower known infection rate than those states — is running a mere 5.9%.

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Georgia ChinCOVID Deaths

As of this writing, Georgia reports 2,642 ChinCOVID deaths. 1,182 of those were in long-term care facilities.

44.7%

I think we’ve identified the primary morbidity indicator. Jeez; Georgia wasn’t even one of the states that made the homicidal call to require nursing homes take in ChinCOVID patients. Having spoken to Georgia nurses who’ve worked in nursing homes over the years, I’m willing to place the blame on the administrators.

Amusingly, the Journal constipation, like other muddia outlets, is spinning the “surge” in “new” cases.

Georgia just reported 1,800 new COVID-19 cases on Saturday, the highest number the state has reported in a single day since the pandemic started.

 

The Georgia Department of Public Health on Saturday reported 1,800 new cases of COVID-19, bringing the statewide total to 63,809.

Not quite. GA DPH actually reported 89 new cases on Saturday (preliminary). The other 1,711 were old cases just now being reported. Judging by the changing graph, some of those cases may go back to as early as May 11. Not all the labs use electronic reporting, so there can be rather long lag times before DPH hears about cases; that’s why DPH calls the recent numbers “preliminary.” But implying that there were 1,800 new cases in a single day is much scarier.

If some of those “new” cases are as old as they appear, the folks could have recovered by the time they were reported. If you’ll look at DPH’s “Cumulative Cases” graph, you should note there is no huge surge; the cases were spread over so many days that the curve remains linear until it begins flattening out on June 18.

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Early ChinCOVID

I’ve thought for months that SARS-CoV-2 was already widespread long before the lockdowns began, making them destructively pointless. And I’ve collected a fair bit of data to support that, including a case in Washington in December. Well, here’s another data point.

Coronavirus was in northern Italy in December, officials reveal after studying wastewater
SARS-Cov-2 RNA (ribonucleic acid) was found in samples collected in Milan and Turin on Dec. 18, 2019, and in Bologna on Jan. 29, 2020.

Detectable levels of RNA in wastewater indicate a lot of infected people, not just one or two. Community transmission was in full swing in Milan by 12/18/2019.

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NBC and NYT still trying for ChinCOVID panic

Ah, NBC; that non-biased COVID-19 fact-checking Trump on COVID-19.

COVID-19 cases are on the rise in 21 states, according to data compiled by The New York Times. There is some indication that expanded testing is catching more cases, but public health experts say that in reality, the surges are due to states’ reopening and people’s relaxing their social distancing protocols.

And Ms. Timm’s source for that, the NYT, is still full of bovine excrement.

Despite even their graph showing a clear decline in Georgia’s new daily cases, they claim we’re still “mostly the same.” BS.

Georgia’s new cases have definitely declined. What the NYT isn’t telling readers is that 6,207 of Georgia’s 53,249 cases — 11.7% — are antibody-positives. By definition, even though they are reported as post-lockdown, they are old cases. Antibody testing largely started just after the lockdown lifted. All of those represent old cases that should be reported as “new” on past dates. Instead, the state is graphing viral and antibody testing together, reporting antibody as new, and creating an imaginary post-lockdown surge.

A proper viral-positive curve would show an even higher peak, and a rapid decline. Not a double peak.

And if Timm at NBC, and the NYT, were interested in truth and facts, they could have noted that antibody testing suggests that 5.9% of Georgia’s population — 626,428 — had ChinCOVID, never knew it, got over it, and developed immunity. Add that to the known 47,974 cases, and that brings Georgia’s COVID-19 mortality rate down to 0.34%.

Oh, well. I probably can’t expect unbiased accuracy from Timm.

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Yet Another Early-COVID Datapoint

I’ve thought that SARS-CoV-2 was circulating widely long before people realized it; among other things, thing making the lockdowns pointless. Barn doors, horses; you know the drill. I collected quite a few bits of data to support that hypothesis, including confirmed community spread in Washington state back in December 2019 (before China even announced it).

Now we have this Harvard study suggesting it was becoming widespread in China last summer.

The global COVID-19 pandemic was originally linked to a zoonotic spillover event in Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Market in November or December of 2019. However, recent evidence suggests that the virus may have already been circulating at the time of the outbreak. Here we use previously validated data streams – satellite imagery of hospital parking lots and Baidu search queries of disease related terms – to investigate this possibility. We observe an upward trend in hospital traffic and search volume beginning in late Summer and early Fall 2019. While queries of the respiratory symptom “cough” show seasonal fluctuations coinciding with yearly influenza seasons, “diarrhea” is a more COVID-19 specific symptom and only shows an association with the current epidemic. The increase of both signals precede the documented start of the COVID-19 pandemic in December, highlighting the value of novel digital sources for surveillance of emerging pathogens.

It’s purely statistical, and doesn’t prove anything, and China denies it. Call it confirmation bias, but it is consistent with all the other things I found.

It would certainly explain why 5.9% of the tested population in Georgia is already positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.

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IHME Model: Declining into utter bullshit

I’m now checking the IHME Georgia COVID-19 model just for giggles. These dishonest scumbuckets are getting further and further from reality. And I’m not even talking about their projections.

IHME currently claims that Georgia saw 965 confirmed infections on June 4, 2020. Confirmed; not model projection.

Georgia DPH says…

89

So from which stinking orifice did IHME pull an additional imaginary 876 cases? Cases that the state agency that gathers and reports this data doesn’t know about?

Just for scale, while IHME is claiming 965 cases that day, Georgia reports that its peak new cases day was April 20, with 950.

As for deaths, IHME is still holding deaths in reserve to falsely maintain a fake curve. IHME claims 2,084 had died by June 3, while the state says 2,159. While that might seem optimistic on IHME’s part, you have to remember that they’ll maliciously report the extra deaths on a later day to make it look like lots of people are still dying. For instance…

Daily deaths, June 3
IHME: 29
GA DPH (the source of the real data): 9

Georgia has not had 29 daily deaths since May 12. And it’s been dropping since. It was declining then.

The IHME model is fraudulent. If it isn’t deliberate as I think, they need to show the source of their alleged data.

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Georgia: No Post-Lockdown COVID-19 Surge

As of 6/2/2020, 5:49:29 PM, Georgia has recorded 48,207 cases of COVID-19 positive tests. And the new cases graph is showing an impressive post-lockdown surge. So why does my post title say the opposite?

Because GA DPH is finally showing separate tallies for viral (active infection) and antibody (post-infection/recovered) tests. 5,395 of the positives were antibody tests. Antibody testing started after the lockdown ended. And that matters because…

To test positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, one must be exposed to the virus, be infected enough to stimulate an immune response, begin producing the appropriate antibodies, and produce enough to be detectable. The entire process can take weeks. That means any positive antibody test represents someone who was infected before the lockdown ended. They’re simply reporting those as new, post-lockdown cases. But in reality, they have no idea when they really occurred (as opposed to finding out about them).

DPH is still graphing viral and antibody testing together. I wish the idiots would separate those out. But a SWAG at the numbers strongly suggests that nearly the entire post-lockdown bump was really antibody-positives.

There was no post-lockdown surge in new cases; it was a surge in reporting, as predicted. The lockdown was pointless from a public health perspective. Kemp locked down Georgia three months after community transmission had already started in the US (despite CDC claims that it was late-January/early-February).

Another interesting point about Georgia’s antibody testing: 5.9% of those tested were positive. Remember; those were people who’d never had any symptoms to speak of, or they would have had viral testing before. COVID-19 has spread across the entire state; viral testing showed cases in every county. Georgia’s population is 10,617,423. Extrapolating, it’s very likely 5.9% of the population would be antibody-positive.

626,428

Georgia has reported 2,102 COVID-19 deaths (never mind for now that we know that number is inflated). That gives us a COVID-19 mortality rate of 0.335%. One-third of one percent. One-tenth of the 3.4% WHO claimed. The vast majority of whom were elderly and/or infirm (and many of those wouldn’t have happened if some states hadn’t decided nursing homes full of the elderly and/or infirm were a good place to stick the infected). But the powers that-be-locked down the entire younger working and student population, crippling the economy for — hopefully only — years.

Here are some more numbers to play with: You’ve heard that over 108,000 have died of COVID-19 in the US. Do you know how many the CDC actually has ICD-10 coded as COVID-19?

86,495.

Yeah, the other 21,000 may have had (or once had) SARS-CoV-2, but that wasn’t what killed them. It was little things like murder, or surgical complications.

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COVID-19: January? TRY to keep up.

The CDC now says SARS-CoV-2 may have been spreading slowly in the US in late January.

The first U.S. cases of nontravel–related COVID-19 were confirmed on February 26 and 28, 2020, suggesting that community transmission was occurring by late February.

This is — among other reasons — is why I do not consider the CDC to be a good source for data. Aside from the fact that nation-wide outbreaks occurred that were too widespread and early to be consistent with a mere late January slow spread, we know that there were nontravel-related illnesses well before that.

  • Ohio: Yes, Ohio, far from Washington. Antibody testing found a case dating as early as January 7. Patients in five counties spread across the state.
  • Washington: Two days after Christmas last year; December 27. Nontravel. That’s when she went symptomatic. Exposure had to be a week or two before that, meaning it was spreading mid-December.

Yes, we know that SARS-CoV-2 was widespread in the US by late last year. Three months before the gov noticed, and decided to use it as an excuse for a totalitarian police state.

Do try to keep up, CDC. Here’s a collection of links to case studies indicating extensive — and mostly harmless — exposure long before the lockdowns.

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My COVID-19 prediction a month later

On April 23, I made a prediction: that Georgia would not see a post-lockdown surge in COVID-19 cases. You can follow that link for my full reasoning, but the short form is that I’d seen indicators that the virus was already widespread before the lockdown ever started.

By May 12, I saw some preliminary indicators that also seemed to support my view; to wit, we did not see a decline in the rate of daily infections which one would expect if the lockdown slowed exposures.

If we were going to see a new, post-lockdown surge, I thought it would start to appear approximately two weeks later, based on a roughly 14 day incubation period. The lockdown was lifted on May 1. I waited a little more than two weeks to give the state’s data time to catch up with local reporting. How did I do?

From that, you might think that my prediction of no new uptick was a complete failure. But wait.

As of this writing, that data is useless for confirming or denying my prediction. Georgia went and made some changes.

First, after the lockdown ended the state began offering COVID-19 screening to anyone. Previously, it was only available for those displaying symptoms. Unless they can report whether post-lockdown positives were symptomatic or not, we don’t know if we’re seeing something other than what we would have if testing had always been available regardless of symptoms.

Second, and far more serious… that graph no longer reports just SARS-CoV-2 testing. It now includes post-lockdown antibody screening. That is, people who never even knew they “had” COVID-19, but had been exposed enough to develop an immune response. And since, not being sick, they don’t know what days the “cases” developed, they seem to be reporting an antibody positive on the day of the test. A person might have been exposed all the way back in January, but it’s reported as happening after the lockdown lifted.

The uptick could be asymptomatic cases we’d never have seen before, because the state wasn’t looking for asymptomatic cases before the reopening. It could be antibody positives. We don’t know how much of which.

The state now says they’ll separate viral and antibody positives and report them separately. Until that happens, my prediction remains untestable, damnit. But the deaths-per-day graph may be another proxy. As yet, that does not appear to show an uptick; the 7-day average curve still looks like a classic epidemic curve. The state also reports that COVID-19 hospitalizations are “down 34% since May 1st.”

Hopefully they’ll sort out that data soon.

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