New Zealand December Provisional “Buyback” Report: 46,750

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With eight days remaining until the deadline, the vast majority of Kiwi firearm owners are thumbing their noses at the government. Over 80% are still not giving up their property to authorities who have failed to protect them.

Here are last month’s numbers in comparison to the latest NZP official numbers.

11-28-2019
Cat A Banned: 32,470
Cat E banned: 5,722
Total: 38,192
Program cost is averaging NZ$2042.73 per firearm (up)
Estimated total cost (assuming complete compliance) at NZ$490,255,200 (up)

12-12-2019
Cat A Banned: 38,049
Cat E banned: 6,506
Modified: 2,195
Total: 46,750
Total Program Cost: NZ$89,503,303

Program cost is averaging NZ$2008.82 per firearm (down)
Estimated total cost (assuming complete compliance) at NZ$482,118,566.26 (down)

Running Compliance total: 19.48% (using last .gov estimate of 240,000 firearms)

Cat E compliance: 44.87% (using estimate of 14,500 firearms). More than half of registered owners of registered Cat E firearms are not complying yet.

Projection: These are provisional numbers as of December 12. The actual deadline is the 20th. Considering the online registration issues they experienced, I expect these provisional numbers to be very close to the final totals.

Interestingly, up till now, the per firearm payout had been increasing. But now, down to the wire, the average payout dropped. I think what got turned in the past month were “burner” guns — worn or trashed — to simulate compliance, such as it is. The drop in “New/Nearly New” percentage, and increase in “Used” conditions support this theory, as well.

Up yours, NZ victim disarmers.

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New Zealand “Buyback” Report: 38,192

Previous reports


Kiwis, by and large, are still not giving up their property to authorities who have failed to protect them.

Here are last month’s numbers in comparison to the latest NZP official numbers.

10-29-2019
Cat A banned: 26,095
Cat E banned: 4,408
Total: 30,503
Program cost is averaging NZ$2037.22 per firearm (up)
Estimated total cost at NZ$488,932,983 (up)

11-28-209
Cat A Banned: 32,470
Cat E banned: 5,722
Total: 38,192
Program cost is averaging NZ$2042.73 per firearm (up)
Estimated total cost (assuming complete compliance) at NZ$490,255,200 (up)

Running Compliance total: 15.9% (using last .gov estimate of 240,000 firearms)

However, they are now reporting modified firearms, as well: 1,421; which raises compliance to 16.5%.

Cat E compliance: 39.5% (using estimate of 14,500 firearms). Over 60% of registered owners of registered Cat E firearms are not complying yet.

Projection: They are averaging 3.3% compliance per month, for 5 months. I guesstimate 19.8% final compliance if rates remain steady.

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New Zealand “Buyback” Report: 27,632

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Oddly enough, even though the average payout per surrendered firearm has increased by NZ$145.95, Kiwis still seem reluctant to give up their property to authorities who have failed to protect them.

Here are last month’s numbers in comparison to the latest NZP official numbers (10/14/2019).

9-23-2019
Cat A banned: 19,184
Cat E banned: 3,126
Total: 22,310
Program cost is averaging NZ$1883.21 per firearm
Estimated total cost at NZ$451,970,400

10-14-209
Cat A Banned: 23,729
Cat E banned: 3,903
Total: 27,632
Program cost is averaging NZ$2029.16 per firearm (up)
Estimated total cost at NZ$486,998,400 (up)

Running Compliance total: 11.51% (using last .gov estimate of 240,000 firearms)

Cat E compliance: 26.92% (using estimate of 14,500 firearms). Nearly 3 in 4 registered owners of registered Cat E firearms are not complying yet.

Projection: They are averaging 2.56% compliance per month, for 4.5 months. I guesstimate 15.35% final compliance if rates remain steady.

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NZ Buyback: Preliminary October Report

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‘Twould appear wise Kiwis are still thumbing their noses at the government’s firearms ban.

As of October 6, 2019, via Stuff.NZ: Continue reading

NZ “Buyback” Report: 22,310

Previous reports


As of September 25, 2019:

Not so fast. 24,073 is the total turned in. 1,763 of those aren’t even prohibited, and they may not have been paid for. The number of banned firearms is 22,310.

Now that I’m getting more specific data, I can do better compliance estimates. The most recent government estimate of the number of affected firearms is 240,000.

That means that with less than three months to go, they have an overall 9.3% compliance rate. Continue reading

New Zealand “Buyback” Report: Preliminary August Numbers

Previous Reports:

  1. Guess the number of NZ guns affected by the confiscation law
  2. New Zealand Confiscation Update

Preliminary numbers for the second month of NZ firearm buybacks are in, and it doesn’t look good for the victim disarmers. (These are early numbers; I hope to see more refined results in coming days.)

How many have they collected?

“about 15,000”

How much have they paid out?

“more than $23 million”

Continue reading

New Zealand Confiscation Update

The first month of the NZ MSSA Amnesty is past, and the results are in.

“Buyback” Events: 90
Firearms turned in: 10,242
Average firearms/event: 113

This isn’t looking good for the government. As previously noted, there are a rough-guesstimated 158,730 affected guns.

Overall running compliance rate: 6.45%

Continue reading