New Zealand Confiscation Update

The first month of the NZ MSSA Amnesty is past, and the results are in.

“Buyback” Events: 90
Firearms turned in: 10,242
Average firearms/event: 113

This isn’t looking good for the government. As previously noted, there are a rough-guesstimated 158,730 affected guns.

Overall running compliance rate: 6.45%

On average, with 250 scheduled “buybacks,” they need to collect 635 guns per event. They’re getting less than one-fifth of that: 17.8% of what they need.

ETA: It’s also worth noting that every time I get new numbers on buyback events, the average number of firearms turned in drops. Compliance is getting worse as the deadline approaches.

They’re on track to approximately match Australia’s 20% compliance rate.

Bear in mind that rate of compliance is based on my own calculations (based on actual payouts and the government’s estimate of how much it will cost) of 158,730 affected firearms. Other people are still tossing around estimates of 1.2-1.5 MILLION. If it is 1.5 million, the compliance rate is a hilarious 0.68% so far.

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Guess the number of NZ guns affected by the confiscation law

Some folks don’t like that I’ve been basing my New Zealand confiscation compliance estimates on NZ media reports.

Granted, “my” (not really mine, but as I said from NZ reports; have to go by something) estimates are kind of laughable, since no one knows how many newly banned guns are in the wild down there. But why are those guesstimates any less valid than my critics’ wild ass guesses?

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