New Zealand “Buyback” Report: Preliminary August Numbers

Previous Reports:

  1. Guess the number of NZ guns affected by the confiscation law
  2. New Zealand Confiscation Update

Preliminary numbers for the second month of NZ firearm buybacks are in, and it doesn’t look good for the victim disarmers. (These are early numbers; I hope to see more refined results in coming days.)

How many have they collected?

“about 15,000”

How much have they paid out?

“more than $23 million”

Given the estimated 158,730 affected firearms, they have reached 9.45% compliance, paying out an average of NZ$1,533 per firearm.

In the first month, they got 6.45% of the firearms.

No, let’s be accurate. The July “buybacks” started mid-month, So the first “month,” with 10,242 firearms, was two weeks. August was a full month, and they only collected 4,758 firearms. Let me make that clear:

July saw an average of 5,121 collected per week.

August saw an average of 1,189 firearms per week.

That’s not owners simply holding out for more money. The initial surge was the meek giving in. August was a trickle of nervous folks.

Despite New Zealand Police Association President Cleopatra’s denial, from the government’s point of view that’s definitely a fiasco.

And please note something from that last link:

“They haven’t put fair market value on the guns and so a small number of thousands have been handed in and there’s hundreds of thousands there,” [National Party leader Simon Bridges] said.

My guesstimate, which yielded the above compliance rates, was 158,730. Bridges’ estimate is at least 40,000 higher (“hundreds of thousands” implies at least 200,000, or more). That suggests a 7.5% overall compliance rate, lower than my estimate.

That doesn’t look much like “really engaged” firearm owners who see the forced confiscations as “outstanding.”

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